Applied Economic Forecasting using Time Series Methods

Economic forecasting is a key ingredient of decision making both in the public and in the private sector. Because economic outcomes are the result of a vast, complex, dynamic and stochastic system, forecasting is very difficult and forecast errors are unavoidable. Because forecast precision and reliability can be enhanced by the use of proper econometric models and methods, this innovative book provides an overview of both theory and applications.Undergraduate and graduate students learning basic and advanced forecasting techniques will be able to build from strong foundations, and researchers in public and private institutions will have access to the most recent tools and insights.Readers will gain from the frequent examples that enhance understanding of how to apply techniques, first by using stylized settings and then by real data applications--focusing on macroeconomic and financial topics.This is first and foremost a book aimed at applying time series methods to solve real-world f