Contingent Expectations: Uncertainty, Risk, and Economic Behavior in Historical Perspective

An empirical analysis and new theoretical framework for understanding economic expectations and decision-making in different historical settings. Expectations play a crucial role in shaping economic behavior.But how are expectations actually formed, and how has this changed over time?The financial crisis of 2007-08 cast doubt on traditional theories of expectation formation, particularly the rational expectations framework.In Contingent Expectations, Alexander Nützenadel and Jochen Streb examine the ways that past experiences influence the economic expectations and decision-making of households, investors, and policymakers through history, and offer an alternative perspective.Combining a comprehensive empirical analysis of expectation formation from the eighteenth century to the present day with an assessment of the relevant economic theory, Nützenadel and Streb present a new theoretical framework, contingent expectations, for understanding economic expectation. Nützenadel and Streb sh